Canadian Dollar 2023 Price Outlook (CAD) - Housing Market Vulnerability is an Emerging Theme

Canada is one of the largest and most preferred countries in the world in terms of trade,  tourism, and general interaction that Canada has with the rest of the world. Canada has had a very vibrant growing economy with a strong multi-ethnicity culture.

However, like the rest of the world, Canada's economy has been impacted first by COVID-19 and recently by the Russia-Ukraine war, China’s interference in Taiwan, and Iran’s insistence on nuclear weapons are major geopolitical exigencies that have hindered Canada’s economic growth, along with support oil prices, these factors had given rise to a  bit of paranoia in 2022, these emotions have rolled over to 2023.

 A bad 2022 -looking  at 2023 with hope

 
The Canadian economy is resilient, but it is feeling the impact in all sectors including the Housing Sector. Though 2023 is a new year of hope, the market is still dealing with the concerns at the start of  2023. The point of discussion is usually will the US interest rates peak or not.  Experts are undecided about US recession risks. Those at JP Morgan do not believe a recession will occur while economists at RBC and Blackrock believe a recession is a foregone conclusion.

Goes without saying that 2022 was a bad year for global stock markets. The S&P 500 index, the favorite risk sentiment barometer for traders, lost nearly 20% due to the Fed hiking interest rates by 400 bps to tame surging inflation. Those hikes helped boost the US 10-year Treasury yield from 1.5% on January 5, 2022, to 4.34% by November 30, before Fed rate peak chatter knocked yields to 3.88% by December 30.

The Canadian Dollar and the Bank of Canada vis-a-vis the global  economy  

The Canadian Dollar 2023 Price Outlook (CAD) indicates that the Canadian Dollar was edgy but bounced back in December 2022.  The  Canadian  Dollar closed out the year with a 7.2% loss against the US Dollar. The Canadian Currency was the weakest of the commodity currency bloc (AUD, NZD, CAD) because the antipodean currencies benefitted from China’s plans to reopen its economy while the US recession fear was a big concern for the Canadian Dollar.  So USD/CAD  were at a lower level since mid-October, 2022.   

The Canadian Dollar’s 2022 year in review

Canadian Dollar 2022 Performance 

The Canadian Dollar 2023 Price Outlook (CAD) expresses a perception that in 2023 that there will be a  steep price decline that will help in balancing Canada's housing market-  Desjardins observed that while comparing to the all-time high prices in February of this year, Desjardins predicted that the national average price of a home will fall by over 25 percent as soon as  2023 comes. 

Canadian Dollar 2023 Price Outlook (CAD) vis-a-vis the most recent residential real estate scenario along with observations of  Desjardins which has stated that it anticipates a significant correction in the Canadian Housing market.

Canadian Dollar 2023 Price Outlook (CAD)  in terms of the housing market can be understood from the opinion of  TD Economics, which states that  Canada's housing market won't rebound until 2024. TD Economics' recent forecast is that the Canadian average home prices will get back to around half of the gains during the pandemic. Also in Canada, the rising interest rates are causing larger monthly payments for homeowners,  in the future, some homeowners may be forced to put up their properties.

Will the Housing Market Crash in Canada?

Source: Canadian Real Estate Association and Desjardins, Economic Studies

Desjardins, Economic Studies for Canadian Dollar 2023 Price Outlook (CAD) in terms of Canadian real estate is indicating a bleak prediction for Canada's housing market that includes even predicting disheartening statistics so far this year.

TD Economics predicts that Canada will have greater housing sales and price falls in 2023, followed by a rebound in 2024. According to the bank, home prices in Canada will fall another 11% in 2023, after falling 22% since record highs in February sales will fall 16% next year.

TD Economics has forecasted that in 2023 high-interest rates and phenomenal costs will make home-buying very difficult for Canadians.  TD Economics in terms of Canadian Dollar 2023 Price Outlook (CAD) vis - a- vis the real estate sector is optimistic about 2024, it predicts that the housing sector will be upbeat in 2024. The bank further predicts that in  2024 home sales will rise 19% and prices will rise 6%.

The important thing to understand is that affordability is steeper for Canadians than for Americans because the average Canadian home price is far higher than the US median price of $390,000. The typical home price in Canada peaked at $604,000 in February before declining to $472,000. A look at the Canadian Dollar 2023 Price Outlook (CAD) in terms of pricing the Canadian Dollar stood at  $0.74. Canada's affordability index using the common metric monthly housing costs shouldn't exceed 30% of monthly income.

Looking  at the  Housing Forecast for Canada  Region Wise

 When we look at the Canadian provinces from the point of view of the Canadian Dollar 2023 Price Outlook (CAD)  for the real estate sector the greatest price increases during the pandemic are expected to have the greatest price adjustments. So there will be significant prices possibly in New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island.  Maritimes presents a different picture the price increases here have been significant, due to in parts substantial migration here from neighboring provinces during the  COVID- 19.  During this time Maritimes started rising later and fell less rapidly than Ontario and British Columbia.

 An overview  of the Canadian Housing Market scenario  in 2023

The reality is that the Canadian Housing Market slump is hitting  Canadian families. The house sales and their prices have fallen drastically and will continue to fall more in the next 18 months.  However, this is transitory as it is facilitating a rational approach in the  Canadian real estate sector, even though some Canadian families are suffering.  This rational approach will increase affordability when Canada's housing market stabilizes next year.  Hopefully, exigencies like the epidemic and the Russia – Ukraine war should set the stage for a durable recovery.

Though there is economic uncertainty in Canada and the world in general there is one company that is inducing confidence and that company is   Interchange Financial which is committed to providing the best   Currency Exchange in Canada. This  prolific foreign exchange-related company is  committed  to contributing towards strengthing the Canadian Foreign Exchange  market  and further contributing  towards a stable Canadian economy.