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Showing posts from October, 2025

Canadian Dollar Struggles for Direction as USD/CAD Holds Above 1.40

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The Canadian dollar is stuck in neutral this week, unable to shake off its slump even as a few fundamentals have turned in its favor. The   USD/CAD   pair is holding steady around 1.4045, hovering near six-month highs as traders wait for something new to drive momentum. The markets seem to be anticipating more Canadian dollar weakness — and continue to shrug off every piece of positive Canadian economic news. Stronger-than-expected Canadian job growth, firmer oil prices, and dovish talk from the U.S. Federal Reserve should have given the Loonie a lift, but so far, investors aren’t biting. Press enter or click to view image in full size Policy divergence keeps the Loonie on its back foot The biggest factor working against the Canadian dollar right now is the widening monetary policy gap between the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the Federal Reserve. Markets expect the BoC to trim rates by roughly 33 basis points over the next year — essentially one cut with a slim chance of a second....

Canadian Dollar Weekly Recap: Strong Jobs, Safe-Haven Flows, and Rate Speculation Shift the Tone

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  It was a volatile week for the Canadian dollar. The big move came Friday morning when Canada reported surprisingly strong employment data for September, which helped the currency recover part of its recent losses. Still, the   USD/CAD   exchange rate remains under pressure from global risk sentiment, interest rate expectations, and weaker commodity prices. Press enter or click to view image in full size A Rocky Start: U.S. Dollar Strength, Weak Oil, and Risk Aversion The Canadian dollar began the week under strain. Oil prices — which play a crucial role in Canada’s export revenue — were trending downward, eroding one of the main sources of support for the currency. Meanwhile, across global markets, investors sought safety in the U.S. dollar, which strengthened broadly against most major currencies, including the Canadian dollar. The greenback gained ground early in the week, pushing USD/CAD above key technical levels. By midweek, USD/CAD hovered near the 1.3950–1.4000 r...